Why are my online church stats looking like that?

Have you seen numbers for online church rise, fall and now steadily increase?

If the answer is yes, you’re not alone. Let me give you an insight into what you are seeing.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle is a graphical depiction of a common pattern that arises with each new technology or other innovation — such as pivoting to online church. You can also track anything else on here — Airpods, assisted-driving, online shopping, streaming music. You name it, you can apply it.

Each year, Gartner creates more than 90 Hype Cycles in various domains as a way for clients to track technology maturity and future potential. The five phases in the Hype Cycle are Technology Trigger, Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment and Plateau of Productivity.

Traditionally this cycle can be anyway from very quick to several years. I believe that what we have seen recently is a very rapid psychological and emotional journey through this, which is very rare, but good to understand. In five years I think we will zoom out and re-paint this picture, using innovation insights, but right now, here’s a little taster…

With a Marketing degree, this stuff fascinates me. But for Online Church, what does this mean?

1. Innovation Trigger aka the lockdown. This triggered a surge of innovation, a mass pivot to online church. Not slow, but rapid (with our own learning curves — which is a separate diagram.)
2. Peak of Inflated Expectation. This led to inflated expectation: “look at how many are streaming services…how long they’re watching for etc.”
3. Trough of disillusionment. The reality of lockdown. Adrenaline has worn off. Emotionally we are all a bit tired and down in the dumps. Missing people, friends, family and freedom. You might have seen your numbers dip around this time. Maybe just after the six week mark? Many people I have spoken to named 6 weeks as their worst week for viewing figures. Coincidence? I think not.
4. Slope of Enlightenment. We have learned valuable lessons. We now know what is sustainable, what is achievable, and our churches know what to expect. Inflated expectations are behind us. We have tried and failed multiple ways and means of doing things online. We now know what our lane is and what we can do. Our churches know where we are, how to find us, and what we are doing.
5. Plateau of Productivity. Steady, slow, incremental improvements in what we do. We are now getting better at newcomers events, we are making tweaks to engaging with people online and helping welcome people, rather than just create content.

We are somewhere, context dependant, between 3 and 4. Which means we should be encouraged, so keep going!

As we look to the future, can I encourage you to remain with the plateau of productivity, raising the bar slowly, making tiny tweaks and improvements — as you would do with your physical services.

In this next season, consistency and constancy are key, with incremental improvements. That way, the trust you have built up will not be eroded with multiple new pivots, instead focus on sustained tweaks and improvements in the same direction as you have begun, as you are able.

I have written a book on communicating church in a digital culture. It’s available over here. You may find it helpful, especially around understanding raising the bar of your comms.